The Ministry of Silly Walks to battle Trump, the TRA and the UAE banks and free zones.

The election of Donald Trump as the next president of the US has caused a ripple or two in world political and economic markets. As I discussed about Brexit, such knee-jerk responses create opportunities.

For example, Mr Trump’s promise to ban all Muslims from America would, one might think, cause stock prices in the travel and hospitality sector to drop seeing as Muslims comprise one quarter of the world’s population. In such a case the correct response would be to short these stocks. But that is the sucker’s play because this equity trade assumes that the American travel and hospitality sector cares about its clients and provides them with some form of quality service levels. Can you see the problem here? I wonder if that is where UAE bankers go to train.

Continue reading

A Tribute to Andy Rooney: A Look into the UAE's Economy.

It’s summer, it’s hot and who wants to wade through an 800 word article? So I’ll base this article on the infamous segment “A Few Minutes with Andy Rooney” from the hit show 60 Minutes, and I’ll simply give a series of light vignettes to whet the appetite and stimulate thought, without overwhelming the senses.

The UAE’s Telecommunications Regulatory Authority frequently bans voice and video over IP (VoIP), a cheap way to communicate with the world. This is significantly beneficial to the oligopoly of Etisalat and du. Yet a regulator is supposed to be protecting the consumers. Banning VoIP because it competes with regular phones is like banning email because it competes with faxes, telegrams and letters. Dear TRA, that was a plea to allow VoIP, not an excuse to ban email. It was also a polite reminder that the consumer is your client, not the telecom companies.

Continue reading

Financial Gems found in Famous Quotes

I have noticed a trend whereby people will post or tweet a quote, with nothing else: no analysis, no interpretation, not even a link to a relevant real world situation.

But that is not what I find strange. What I find strange are the scores of ‘likes’ and dozens of responses along the lines of “Right on!”, “Exactly!”, “How insightful!”, etc. How vapid. There is, though, one redeeming quality of this social media blight. I get to use the word vapid in writing for the first time in my life. Also blight.

I am not saying that these quotes from great minds are not enlightening, just that if one wishes to post quotes, then they should use it as the foundation of a deeper meaning. Otherwise it is just spam.

Not being one to simply point out problems without providing solutions, allow me to lead the way in posting pearls of wisdom from the long dead as well as my insights on these quotes. Attempting to provide value, if you will.

The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt.
– Bertrand Russell

Continue reading

The Poetry of Entrepreneurship

A well rounded education, formal or informal, is necessary for the success of any entrepreneur. The internet is replete with quotes relevant to the entrepreneur. But the world has offered much more, oh so much more, to the inquisitive mind. Yes, Malcom Gladwell has interesting insights, a look into Steve Job’s life might be beneficial, and maybe you can really learn to work for only four hours a week.

But all of this misses the power of words that connect with you emotionally, at a deep level. The spirit must receive the same nourishment as the mind and body, and what better than the world’s leading poets to provide such nourishment? Who better to capture the spirit of the challenge, the journey, that is an entrepreneur?

Continue reading

The Pirate Code is behind Pay Inequality

In the fourth article of the game theory series, we build on the Saudis out-bluffing OPEC and The Joker forcing the good people of Gotham to choose between game theory and Batman. In this installment, you will learn how blood thirsty, treasure hunting pirates might just explain the ridiculously large wage gaps in modern day corporations. To set the stage, one must think like a pirate, indeed be the pirate. I do not mean the rum soaked debauchery of commercially suggestible women in a tavern named Hurricane. What I mean when I say ‘think like a pirate’ is think selfishly. That’s what successful senior executives do. Isn’t it?

Continue reading

Gotham Game Theory: The Joker's Dilemma

The most famous example used to explain game theory is a game called The Prisoner’s Dilemma. A far more fun approach is looking at a game that The Joker introduces to the hit movie The Dark Knight, one of the Batman movies.

In the movie The Joker rigs two ferries with bombs. Ferry A is filled with innocent civilians and Ferry B is filled with prisoners and their police escort. Ferry A has a detonator for the bombs on Ferry B, and Ferry B has the detonator for the bombs on Ferry A. That is the setup, now for the rules.

If Ferry A detonates Ferry B and kills everyone on it, then the passengers on Ferry A survive. If Ferry B detonates first, then they survive. If nobody detonates within 30 minutes, then both ferries explode and everybody dies.

Continue reading

Why the iPhone is Feminist

This is going to be a short, but powerful, post.

We all know that the iPhone is a battery hog. If you use any of its features then the battery will not last for the whole day. Quite often the battery will drain even when you are not using it. This has created a massive market in mobile phone chargers.

The size of these chargers ranges from a small cigar, capable of a single recharge, to bricks that can provide four recharges to two iPhones at a time.

Men might be able to ensconce a single charge portable on their person.

Women, who are not threatened by carrying a personal container, can easily store a four charge mobile charger in their purse.

The personal advantage of women being able to communicate with the world when men have long lost their battery charge is enormous. But the true power for women comes from men requesting access to the net via their female colleague’s phone, or even more emasculating, to ask for a recharge of their phones using the second connector on their colleague’s mobile charger. Seriously, it’s like being the mistress.

Men, who have been earning far more than women not because they are better but because the world is sexist, will finally learn what it is to ask a woman to treat them as an equal.

It is not clear to me if Apple has secretly been working as the gender equaliser, or if their massive incompetence has led to this situation. A global karma possibly? Or would that be iKarma?

They say that a change in the wind creates deserts. Perhaps a change in technology can alter misconceptions held for far too long.

An economy missing half its population is running at 50% of potential. What a waste.

Saudi Oil: Through the Looking Glass & Other Adventures in Investing

About a month and a half ago I wrote an article on the sudden drop in oil prices, pointing out some basic errors in the media analysis and providing alternative interpretations for what was going on. The media flurry continued, and the errors in reporting and analysis also continued. So I wrote a second article diving in deeper into the analysis. The media storm continues unabated. To understand the insanity, Reuters on 17 November reported that hedge funds where net short oil. On 8 December Reuters announced that hedge funds were net long oil. What gives? Continue reading

Performance Appraisals Gone Wild

Performance appraisals are a great idea usually badly implemented. Early in my career a new Head of HR showed up and implemented a complete overhaul of HR not only without input from the rest of the company but with no transparency as to what the new HR systems were. Then the time came for performance appraisals and the madness began. On a 1 to 5 scale we were instructed that 3 was good, 4 was excellent and nobody should get a 5.

I diligently went through the appraisals with my team and submitted them to HR. They requested a meeting. Present at the meeting were the Department Head of HR, we’ll call him Rajesh, and a mid-level HR person who we’ll call Asha. Finally there was a Divisional Head present who had nothing to do with HR. We’ll call him Simon. I was a Divisional Head.

So, now that we set the scene, Asha of all people opens the discussion. The company wide performance average was a little over 3 and the average for my division was well above 4. HR felt that this was not fair. The tremor in her voice belied her nervousness. Quoting a well known joke (later immortalised in a Dilbert cartoon) I asked if Asha wanted me to reduce my team’s scores or their actual performance. Nobody laughed. It was going to be one of those meetings. Continue reading