The Future of SMEs: Unlocking Global Growth with AI

This entry is part 3 of 3 in the series SME's Rising

For decades the advantage of large corporations was not only capital but also access to “better brains.” They could afford strategy consultants, marketing agencies, research labs, and legal teams. SMEs, by contrast, had to rely on intuition and grit.

Artificial intelligence is changing that equation. By compressing the cost of strategic, creative, and analytical expertise, AI is dismantling the corporate moats that once protected big business. For the first time, SMEs can access world-class capabilities at startup budgets — and compete globally on equal footing.

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SMEs’ Exponential Growth: Riding Technology Disruptions

This entry is part 2 of 3 in the series SME's Rising

 

Every major wave of technology has arrived with the same gloomy forecast: SMEs would be crushed, jobs would disappear, and only large corporations would survive. From e-commerce to cloud, from logistics platforms to AI, the narrative was always that disruption favoured the giants.

History shows the opposite. Each disruption did not kill SMEs — it fuelled their growth. Far from being sidelined, SMEs used technology to multiply their reach, revenues, and profits.

This is the overlooked story of how SMEs turned “death knells” into exponential growth.

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The SME Globalisation Stack: From Search Engines to AI

This entry is part 1 of 3 in the series SME's Rising

For much of modern history SMEs were locked into their local markets. A craftsman in Jaipur could only sell at the bazaar, a boutique in Barcelona could only advertise in local papers, and a family-run food producer in Nairobi could only distribute within city limits. Global reach, professional marketing, and sophisticated operations were the preserve of large corporations with deep pockets.

Technology has changed that, layer by layer. Each wave of innovation has removed one constraint — marketing reach, payments, logistics, operations, credibility, capital, and now intellectual firepower. The result is what we can call the SME Globalisation Stack: the technologies that have made it possible for SMEs to compete globally without ever becoming “big.” Continue reading

Global Hubs & SMEs: From Hosting Giants to Hosting Intelligence

This entry is part 8 of 8 in the series Gen-AI Erodes Business Models

For decades, global financial and commercial centers defined themselves by their ability to host the largest companies. New York, London, Tokyo, and Hong Kong became magnets for multinationals because they provided what those firms needed: access to capital, legal frameworks, professional talent, and international connectivity.

The implicit goal for cities and countries was clear: attract the giants, and the rest of the economy will benefit.

But the rise of generative AI (GAI) challenges this model. If AI truly breaks down the moats that once protected big companies, then the focus of global centers may shift dramatically from hosting giants to hosting intelligence.

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Stark SME stats don’t tell the full story

The issue of lending to SMEs in the UAE was discussed at the Middle East Banking Forum in Abu Dhabi on Wednesday, where a number of solutions were raised to tackle a perceived dearth in funding for the country’s small businesses.

Mubarak Rashed Al Mansoori, the governor of the Central Bank of the UAE, said the Bank was working on a multi-pronged solution to the conundrum, one of which is to encourage private equity (PE) investors to take up some of the slack left by the banks.

Important as it is for PE players to participate in the SME sector, it’s worth remembering that their contribution forms a different part of the capital structure for businesses of all sizes. There’s undoubtedly a place for equity investment in SMEs, but that doesn’t mean they won’t need debt as well.

That’s not to say that the Central Bank is looking for solutions in the wrong place. But it’s worth noting that the bank has already done everything in its power to support the SME segment. The banking sector and the SMEs themselves, however, deserve a little more scrutiny. Continue reading

How can government acclimatise lenders to SMEs?

Over the past six months leaders in the banking sector have announced that SME owners and managers were departing the UAE with their companies in trouble and defaulting on their loans.

The implication was that the SMEs were in trouble because of a contraction in the economy.

However, the banks clarified that a portion of the defaults was because of banks getting a clearer picture of the SMEs’ borrowings thanks to the UAE’s Credit Bureau, and then calling in or not rolling over credit facilities – although there was no clarity on what percentage of the defaults were because of banks behaving in this manner.

There was also no clarity on whether the numbers mentioned in terms of SME defaults were gross or net – did the banks subtract out the value of the collateral and provisions already booked?

To their credit, the banks came together and developed a framework, the “mini bankruptcy law”, that is supposed to discourage banks from acting prematurely against SMEs and instead to try to work out a more effective solution by talking to the other banks involved as well as the SME.

Although seeing the banks work together to stave a wholesale rout in the SME sector, considered strategic by the government, is quite salutary it is disappointing to see the SME sector take yet another hit.

As the SME sector is strategic to the government, which not only talks about it but also has developed institutions to help its growth such as the Khalifa Fund and the Dubai SME 100, then how might the government work to better develop private sector lending to SMEs?

There are more than 50 banks in the UAE, which has a population of about 9.5 million, the majority of whom are blue-collar workers.

With that much competition one would expect that the lenders, both banks and non-banking financial institutions, would be forced by competitive pressures to expand into every sector, including SMEs. But this is not the case.

There are at least three ways that the government can incentivise lenders into lending to SMEs.

The first is to guarantee the principal of SME loans. This approach has been used the world over to help shepherd banks into lending to parts of the economy they might initially be wary of.

Guarantees, of course, create a moral hazard, in that if the lender has nothing to lose then they might lend recklessly, wasting government money and lending to the wrong SMEs.

The idea would then be to create some level of risk, such as a co-pay or a deductible on, say, the first 10 per cent loss.

Other moral hazard busters include charging for the guarantee – in other words, credit insurance. Or some combination of the above.

This can lead to lenders familiarising themselves more thoroughly with the SME market before taking the plunge of lending without guarantees.

The second way governments can incentivise lenders is extrapolated from the 50-plus banks surviving in a relatively small economy.

The only answer as to why competitive pressure has not culled this number is that the government supports lenders through outsize deposits, possibly at below-market rates, and huge loans for infrastructure development, possibly at above-market rates.

If this conclusion is true, then the government can steer this lucrative business to banks that are more attuned to its policy objectives. If one such objective is developing the SME sector, then government business can be steered to those banks supporting such an objective.

The third way is through education.

As I have written in detail in previous articles, SME lending is different from large corporate lending. A real-world example is a board member who was not used to the volatility in non-performing loans demanding that the credit risk be decreased by lending smaller amounts.

The unintended consequence is that the client demographic moved sharply to small SMEs.

To understand why, consider an SME that wants to purchase a piece of equipment for Dh1 million. It does the company no good to be offered a loan for Dh200,000. So it doesn’t take it. Only a smaller firm with smaller needs would be interested in such loans.

The problem with sliding down the size curve is that although any individual loss is smaller, the probability of loss increases tremendously. This can lead, and has led, to large losses at a portfolio level.

This is why erroneous thinking with regard to the SME market needs to be corrected.

This article was originally published in The National.

SME financing needs from management's perspective

Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) have been getting a lot of attention in the past few years. Government initiatives such as the Khalifa Fund and Dubai SME 100 complement private initiatives seeking to provide financing for these SMEs. Everyone agrees that SMEs form an important part of the economy. Everyone also agrees that supporting SMEs is challenging. That is the sum total of what people agree on with regard to SMEs.

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Lack of SME Lending Harms Large Corporates, Creates Shadow Banking

The existence of an SME credit gap, the difference between demand for loans by SMEs and provision of those loans by commercial banks, and its effects on SMEs has been discussed in detail in a separate article on this blog. The effects on large corporates is no less serious. Using some simple statistics from the earlier article, if SMEs are the source of greater than 50% of GDP and their share of bank lending is only 4% then either SMEs are super efficient, big corporates are super inefficient, or somebody else is financing these SMEs. I think that we can safely agree that it is highly unlikely for the SME sector to be super efficient or big corporates to be super inefficient. That leaves some, or all, of the USD 260 billion SME credit gap funded by a segment of the economy other than banks. Let’s unravel this mystery.

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Why SMEs are Survivors

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SMEs are a family’s lifeblood. They are built and run by families. They are not conglomerates with diversified business lines, they do not own monopoly agencies guaranteeing income, they do not have special connections to large clients securing lucrative contracts. SMEs are run by the blood, sweat and tears of the family members. If the SME fails then loved ones will go hungry. That is exactly why SMEs are survivors.

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SMEs: The Ignored Middle Child of Banking?

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In developing various business plans for SME credit I often review why the commercial banks do not lend to this sector proportional to its contribution to GDP. I have written at length about some of my main ideas but I think there are several secondary issues that also play a role. One is the positioning of SME loans on the risk/reward curve relative to the two main alternatives: corporate loans and retail loans.

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